In the case of lithium resource shortage and sharp price increase, the development of sodium-ion batteries, which are similar to lithium batteries in composition structure, working principle and production process, has accelerated. In the field of sodium-ion batteries, there are also many routes for the selection of positive electrode materials. The three most typical representatives are layered oxides, Prussian blue (white) and polyanions.
So what are the differences between sodium-ion batteries with different positive electrode materials, and which route is more valuable for investment? To answer the above questions, Miaotou invited Mr. Wu, the R&D manager of a power battery company, to answer questions for investors.
Key points:
Layered oxide sodium batteries will be the first to achieve mass production, replacing part of the lead-acid battery market and part of the low-end market of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
At present, the profit of positive electrode material factories in sodium positive electrode materials can reach a level similar to that of lithium battery ternary materials. However, as the process of industrialization continues to accelerate, it may be close to the processing price in the future.
Traditional lithium battery positive electrode material manufacturers have more competitive advantages, and they have better cost control over mineral raw materials and production and manufacturing links, and have corresponding terminal markets (battery factories).
It is difficult for cathode material factories to switch routes. The production lines of Prussian blue (white) and polyanions need to be rebuilt. Layered oxides can share production lines with existing lithium battery cathode materials, but it is easier for battery factories to switch when producing three types of sodium batteries.
What are the differences between sodium-ion batteries of different routes?
Battery energy density is related to battery life, and the number of cycles is related to battery life.
Layered oxides:
Experts believe that layered oxide sodium batteries will be prioritized for mass production. The energy density upper limit of layered oxide sodium batteries is the highest among the three, with the largest imagination space; the number of cycles is at a medium level, and the upper limit has the opportunity to reach the level of current ternary lithium batteries in the future; layered oxides are more compatible with the mass production lines of the current mainstream lithium battery ternary cathode material factories. Most of the existing equipment and factory buildings can share production lines and can be used with only slight adjustments, which can reduce costs. Therefore, for cathode material factories, layered oxides are the easiest cathode material route to industrialize.
Layered oxide sodium batteries perform well in both low and high temperature scenarios. The most easily industrialized application scenarios are A00-class passenger cars and two-wheeled vehicles with a range of less than 300km, which means that they will replace some lead-acid battery markets and some low-end lithium iron phosphate battery markets. In addition, layered oxide sodium batteries will also have some energy storage markets.
Prussian blue (white):
The cost of Prussian blue (white) sodium batteries will be lower than that of layered oxides, and its energy density is second only to layered oxides, and much higher than polyanions. However, its conductivity and cycle performance are worse than those of layered oxides, resulting in a lower service life. In addition, it will produce highly toxic cyanide during the sintering preparation process.
The application scenarios of Prussian blue (white) sodium batteries and layered oxides are similar, except that they will produce highly toxic cyanide during production and have a slightly lower energy density, so the cost performance is slightly lower.
Polyanions:
The energy density of polyanion sodium batteries is particularly low, but the cycle performance is particularly good. At present, it can achieve more than 5,000 cycles, and even 10,000 cycles is not a problem. At present, the cost is high and the energy density is low, and the cost performance is insufficient.
Polyanion sodium batteries have attracted much attention some time ago. They are more used in some energy storage markets or long-cycle markets such as electric ships. For example, industrial energy storage requires more than 5,000 cycles, and the volume energy density requirement is not so high, but it requires a warranty of more than ten years or even twenty or thirty years. In this scenario, polyanion sodium batteries will have certain opportunities.
The energy storage market has broad prospects. Does this mean that polyanion sodium batteries have great potential?
Experts said that energy storage is also divided into different fields, such as industrial energy storage and household energy storage. Polyanion sodium batteries have certain opportunities in industrial energy storage, but in the field of industrial energy storage, it has a relatively large competitor, lithium iron phosphate, or lithium manganese iron phosphate that may exist in the future, because lithium iron phosphate can easily achieve more than 5,000 cycles.
From the perspective of industrialization, experts believe that layered oxides are more promising. Layered oxides are somewhat like ternary materials for lithium batteries. The voltage of ternary materials is getting higher and higher. As the voltage continues to rise, its energy density will increase. Therefore, the energy density of layered oxide sodium batteries can be extended upward, and there is more room for exploration.
What is the bargaining power/profitability of sodium battery positive electrode material manufacturers?
As we all know, sodium resources are abundant and lithium resources are scarce. Theoretically, sodium electricity will be very cheap, but sodium batteries have not yet been industrialized, and the development of battery-grade sodium salts and the sintering of sodium electricity precursors have not yet formed a certain scale. Therefore, the cost of sodium batteries is still slightly more expensive than lithium iron phosphate batteries at this stage.
At present, the profit of positive electrode material factories in sodium positive electrode materials can reach a level similar to that of lithium battery ternary materials. However, as the process of industrialization continues to accelerate, it may be close to the processing price in the future, because the prices of many raw materials are very transparent.
The sodium battery industry chain is highly overlapped with the lithium battery industry chain. We have also done key questions and answers about the profitability of the lithium battery industry chain before. From the perspective of battery materials, the profit margin of positive electrode materials is indeed not high, and sodium resources are more abundant.
Miaotou added: According to statistics from CITIC Securities, at this stage, China Science and Technology Sodium, Veken Technology, Hunan Cube New Energy, etc. mainly adopt the layered oxidation route; Star Sodium Electric, Ben’an Energy, etc. mainly adopt the Prussian blue (white) route; Huayang Shares, Zhongna Energy, Penghui Energy, Shandong Zhanggu, etc. mainly adopt the polyanion route; Chuanyi Technology and Sodium Innovation Energy have both layered oxide and polyanion technology routes.
The first generation of sodium-ion batteries announced by CATL in 2021 uses the Prussian blue (white) route. According to information disclosed by China Science and Technology Sodium and Chuanyi Technology, sodium-ion batteries based on layered oxides and polyanions have already been put into production in 2022. The Prussian blue (white) GWh-level production line of Ben’an Energy is still underway, and the progress of large-scale industrialization is slightly slower than the other two materials.
What kind of positive electrode material manufacturers have more advantages?
As for positive electrode material companies, experts said that they are still optimistic about traditional lithium battery positive electrode material manufacturers. Because the industrialization of positive electrode materials needs to be from top to bottom. The upstream needs to control costs, whether it is the cost of mineral raw materials or manufacturing costs; the downstream needs to have a corresponding terminal market (battery factory). When battery factories choose positive electrode material manufacturers, they first consider their costs and secondly whether they can provide stable supply.
It is not easy for new entrants to make layered oxides, because the advantages of traditional positive electrode material factories have been established. New entrants in the other two systems will have certain opportunities. Among them, polyanion sodium batteries have low life cycle costs and will have certain opportunities in the energy storage market segment. And although its energy density is the lowest among the three, it is still higher than that of lead-acid batteries.
Is it easy for relevant manufacturers to switch routes?
From the perspective of positive electrode material factories, the existing production lines of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate positive electrode materials are not applicable to the production of Prussian blue (white) and polyanion positive electrode materials. Some process routes are completely different and the production lines need to be rebuilt, so the difficulty of industrialization will be slightly higher. The production of layered oxide cathode materials can be done by adjusting the sintering sequence, temperature, and some parameters, as well as some environmental control, and can share the production line with the existing lithium battery cathode materials.
From the perspective of battery manufacturers, although the sodium batteries of the three cathode materials all belong to the new chemical system, the manufacturing process is closer to ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate, so it is easier for battery manufacturers to switch during production.
Post time: Dec-02-2024